新丝路

<section style="box-sizing:border-box;font-family:Roboto, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;color:#424242;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><section style="box-sizing:border-box;"><section style="box-sizing:border-box;"> <p class="p1" style="text-align:justify;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:24px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;font-size:1.2em !important;line-height:2em !important;"> <span class="s1" style="font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;"><b style="box-sizing:border-box;">RCEP</b></span><span class="s2" style="font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;"><b style="box-sizing:border-box;">是一个综合性协议。</b></span><span class="s1" style="font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">RCEP</span><span class="s2" style="font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">由东盟十国在</span><span class="s1" style="font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">2012</span><span class="s2" style="font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">年发起，历经八年谈判，于</span><span class="s1" style="font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">2019</span><span class="s2" style="font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">年</span><span class="s1" style="font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">11</span><span class="s2" style="font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">月</span><span class="s1" style="font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">4</span><span class="s2" style="font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">日完成谈判，并于</span><span class="s1" style="font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">2020</span><span class="s2" style="font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">年</span><span class="s1" style="font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">11</span><span class="s2" style="font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">月</span><span class="s1" style="font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">15</span><span class="s2" style="font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">日正式签署。</span><span class="s1" style="font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">RCEP</span><span class="s2" style="font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">法律文本共有</span><span class="s1" style="font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">20</span><span class="s2" style="font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">章，既涵盖了货物贸易、服务贸易、投资等市场准入，也包括贸易便利化、知识产权、电子商务、竞争政策、政府采购等大量规则内容。</span> </p> <p class="p3" style="text-align:justify;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:24px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;font-size:1.2em !important;line-height:2em !important;"> <span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;"><b style="box-sizing:border-box;">RCEP</b></span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;"><b style="box-sizing:border-box;">将促进区域内贸易，对中国</b></span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;"><b style="box-sizing:border-box;">GDP</b></span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;"><b style="box-sizing:border-box;">有所提升，纺织服装、轻工最为受益。</b>在最受关注的关税削减方面，</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">RCEP</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">中货物贸易零关税产品数整体上超过</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">90%</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">，并且新增了中日、日韩两对重要国家间的自贸关系。商务部副部长兼国际贸易谈判副代表王受文表示：</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">“</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">根据国际智库测算，</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">2025</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">年，</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">RCEP</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">可望带动成员国出口增长比基线多</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">10.4%</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">。</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">”</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">根据彼得森国际经济研究所估算，假设中美贸易摩擦延续，中国加入</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">RCEP</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">将在</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">2030</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">年为其实际国民收入带来额外</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">1000</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">亿美元的增长，从而抵消约三成贸易摩擦带来的负面影响。赛迪研究院工业经济研究所助理研究员梁一新（</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">2020</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">）测算，</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">RCEP</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">可以分别提升</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">“</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">十四五</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">”</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">期间中国出口、进口、投资、</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">GDP</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">增速</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">1.95</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">、</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">1.63</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">、</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">0.09</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">、</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">0.04</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">个百分点；纺织服装、轻工的产出增速将分别提升</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">0.86</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">、</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">0.33</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">个百分点。</span> </p> <p class="p3" style="text-align:justify;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:24px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;font-size:1.2em !important;line-height:2em !important;"> <span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;"><b style="box-sizing:border-box;">对于中国来说，</b></span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;"><b style="box-sizing:border-box;">RCEP</b></span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;"><b style="box-sizing:border-box;">签署的战略意义更强。</b>虽然印度退出，但目前</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">RCEP</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">十五国仍然占据世界</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">30%</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">的人口和近</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">30%</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">的</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">GDP</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">，将成为世界上最大的自贸区。在</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">RCEP</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">框架下，中日贸易关税将预计大幅缩减，中韩也将进一步便利关键领域贸易。鉴于美国试图切断含有中国产品尤其是科技产品的供应链已经是两党共识，中国与其它亚洲国家强化商业纽带并深化科技合作的重要性也日益突出。我们预计</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">RCEP</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">将有效增加成员国间的贸易往来，提升区域经济活力和竞争力，并降低该区域对美国的依赖程度。而</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">RCEP</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">对比</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">CPTPP</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">，两者均属区域性自贸协定。在会员国和地域分布上，也有部分重合，日本和澳大利亚等七个国家同时参与了这两个自贸协定。不同的是，</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">CPTPP</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">在贸易以外的诸多领域有着更为严苛的加入标准。</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">RCEP</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">的签署为未来中国参与更多更高标准的自由贸易协定、促进双循环提供了坚实的基础。</span> </p> <p class="p1" style="text-align:justify;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:24px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;font-size:1.2em !important;line-height:2em !important;"> <span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;"><b style="box-sizing:border-box;">中国纺服产业链优势凸显</b></span> </p> <p class="p1" style="text-align:justify;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:24px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;font-size:1.2em !important;line-height:2em !important;"> <span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;"><b style="box-sizing:border-box;">RCEP</b></span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;"><b style="box-sizing:border-box;">覆盖区域国家间产业优势互补</b></span> </p> <p class="p1" style="text-align:justify;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:24px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;font-size:1.2em !important;line-height:2em !important;"> <span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;"><b style="box-sizing:border-box;">中国制造端产业链配套完善</b></span> </p> <p class="p1" style="text-align:justify;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:24px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;font-size:1.2em !important;line-height:2em !important;"> <span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;"><b style="box-sizing:border-box;">中国作为全球最大的纺织品出口国，具备深厚的产业积淀、显著的产业集群效应及完善的产业链配套设施。</b>虽然近些年因劳动力水电租金成本及国际贸易不确定性使然，东南亚、中南美等国家市场份额快速提升，纺织业出口市场竞争者不断涌现，出现了一定程度的产业转移，但综合考虑国际品牌对订单按时、按质、按量交付的高要求，中国纺织产业链在承接短交期、高复杂性及大批量订单时的可靠性相较别国优势依旧明显。</span> </p> <p class="p3" style="text-align:justify;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:24px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;font-size:1.2em !important;line-height:2em !important;"> <span class="s3" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;"><b style="box-sizing:border-box;">►</b></span><b style="box-sizing:border-box;">&nbsp;</b><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;"><b style="box-sizing:border-box;">产业集群有助于缩短交期：</b>从棉花到成衣，整个纺织产业链涉及多个环节，分别是：纱线纺织、面料加工染整以及成衣制造；此外还涉及诸如染料、服装辅料的配搭。考虑到品牌商及零售商加快供应链反应速度的需求，主要环节上下游之间的匹配度及辅助环节的充裕度成为必不可少的竞争要素。中国纺织业市场因发展早、规模大，在东南沿海地区形成了高度配套的产业集群，可为品牌商提供快速一站式服务；相应地，一些新兴纺织出口国因产业基础尚不牢靠，部分原料及辅料采购依赖进口，通关时间成为制约生产周期的一大掣肘因素。</span> </p> <p class="p3" style="text-align:justify;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:24px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;font-size:1.2em !important;line-height:2em !important;"> <span class="s3" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;"><b style="box-sizing:border-box;">►</b></span><b style="box-sizing:border-box;">&nbsp;</b><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;"><b style="box-sizing:border-box;">高素质劳动力及机器设备便于承接高复杂度订单：</b>得益于产业的先发优势，中国纺织产业链具备深厚的生产工艺积淀及日积月累的技术投入，因而在生产高功能性、高复杂度的服装订单时相对其他出口国具备优势。例如申洲国际的技术研发中心设在宁波，待新技术测试成功后方可在海外工厂投入应用；同时到目前为止海外员工生产效率相较国内员工仍有较大提升空间。</span> </p> <p class="p3" style="text-align:justify;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:24px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;font-size:1.2em !important;line-height:2em !important;"> <span class="s3" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;"><b style="box-sizing:border-box;">►</b></span><b style="box-sizing:border-box;">&nbsp;</b><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;"><b style="box-sizing:border-box;">稳定的基础设施为大规模批量生产奠定基础：</b>纺织制衣的上游生产环节资本密集属性强，因此对水电供应的稳定性要求较高。部分新兴纺织品出口国因自身基础设施配套欠佳，目前只能进行劳动密集的成衣代工，无法进入上游生产环节，因此对本地形成产业集群也形成拖累。</span> </p> <p class="p3" style="text-align:justify;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:24px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;font-size:1.2em !important;line-height:2em !important;"> <span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">图表</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;"><i style="box-sizing:border-box;">:&nbsp;</i></span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">中国纺织制衣上市企业已实现全球品牌供应链的上中下游全覆盖</span> </p> </section></section></section><section style="box-sizing:border-box;font-family:Roboto, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;color:#424242;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;"> <div style="text-align:justify;"> <br /> </div> <p style="text-align:justify;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:24px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;font-size:1.2em !important;line-height:2em !important;"> <em style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">资料来源：公司公告，中金公司研究部</em> </p> </section><section style="box-sizing:border-box;font-family:Roboto, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;color:#424242;font-size:14px;white-space:normal;background-color:#FFFFFF;"><section style="box-sizing:border-box;"><section style="box-sizing:border-box;"><section style="box-sizing:border-box;"></section></section><section style="box-sizing:border-box;"> <p class="p1" style="text-align:justify;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:24px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;font-size:1.2em !important;line-height:2em !important;"> <span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;"><b style="box-sizing:border-box;">东南亚产能具备成本优势</b></span> </p> <p class="p1" style="text-align:justify;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:24px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;font-size:1.2em !important;line-height:2em !important;"> <span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">东南亚地区目前已成为新兴纺织品出口市场的后起之秀。以越南为例，目前已有超过</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">6,000</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">家纺织服装企业，吸引劳动力超</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">350</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">万人。整体来看，越南已经成为中国纺织服装产业转移的主要目的地国家；品类细分来看，越南是纱线及成衣的重要出口国，但面料依赖进口，</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">70~80%</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">的面料需求由国外供应商提供。为进一步发挥产业集群效应，越南形成了约</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">290</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">个制造业工业园区，现成厂房、基建、公用设施及税收优惠政策使这些工业园成为外资厂商设厂的首选。<b style="box-sizing:border-box;">我们认为，以下因素决定了东南亚纺织业的成本优势：</b></span> </p> <p class="p2" style="text-align:justify;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:24px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;font-size:1.2em !important;line-height:2em !important;"> <span class="s3" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;"><b style="box-sizing:border-box;">►</b></span><b style="box-sizing:border-box;">&nbsp;</b><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;"><b style="box-sizing:border-box;">劳动力成本优势：</b>对于纺织服装价值链而言，由上游的纱线制造到下游的成衣代工，各环节由资本密集型向劳动密集型过渡。根据纺织行业咨询公司</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">Werner International</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">调查，</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">2014</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">年越南纺织行业的单位劳动成本仅为</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">0.74</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">美元</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">/</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">时，在全球范围内处于绝对低位；作为对比，中国大陆纺织行业单位劳动成本为</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">2.65</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">美元</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">/</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">时。</span> </p> <p class="p2" style="text-align:justify;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:24px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;font-size:1.2em !important;line-height:2em !important;"> <span class="s3" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;"><b style="box-sizing:border-box;">►</b></span><b style="box-sizing:border-box;">&nbsp;</b><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;"><b style="box-sizing:border-box;">外贸导向政策支持：</b>低税费节省所得税开支，自由贸易协定提升产品价格竞争力。</span> </p> <p class="p2" style="text-align:justify;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:24px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;font-size:1.2em !important;line-height:2em !important;"> <span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;"><b style="box-sizing:border-box;">•&nbsp;</b></span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;"><b style="box-sizing:border-box;">外商直接投资可享受税收减免：因为东南亚地区通过所得税优惠以吸引，纺织企业在越南及柬埔寨可享有较中国大陆更具吸引力的税收政策。</b>（</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">1</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">）目前中国大陆所得税率为</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">25%</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">；（</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">2</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">）柬埔寨经营实体正常所得税率为</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">20%</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">，外商设厂自盈利开始可享受</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">4</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">年免税期，之后的税收优惠相对较难获批；越南所得税率同样为</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">20%</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">，外商税收优惠为开始获利起</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">2</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">年内税收豁免、</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">4</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">年内享受</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">50%</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">所得税减免；部分企业因在当地总投资额、创收及提供就业机会方面达到门槛，可享受</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">4</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">年免税、</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">9</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">年减半征税的进一步税收优待。</span> </p> <p class="p2" style="text-align:justify;box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin-top:0px;margin-bottom:24px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;font-size:1.2em !important;line-height:2em !important;"> <span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;"><b style="box-sizing:border-box;">•&nbsp;</b></span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;"><b style="box-sizing:border-box;">优惠的国际贸易条款：</b>现阶段（</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">1</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">）柬埔寨向欧盟出口大部分产品及越南向日本出口免征关税；（</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">2</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">）随着自贸协定的签订，越南出口至欧盟的关税有望降低；（</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">3</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">）虽然美国业已退出跨太平洋战略经济伙伴关系协定（</span><span class="s2" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">TPP</span><span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;">），但是历史上越南向美国出口所面临的关税一贯稳定，遭遇惩罚性关税的可能性较低。</span> </p> <div style="text-align:justify;"> <span class="s1" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;font-size:16.8px;font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;margin:0px;outline:0px;padding:0px;vertical-align:baseline;"><br /> </span> </div> </section></section></section>